Modeling the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on First Nations, Metis, and Inuit Communities: Some Considerations

Abstract

Objectives: This article articulates the complexity of modeling in First Nations, Metis, and Inuit contexts by providing the results of a modeling exercise completed at the request of the First Nations Health and Social Secretariat of Manitoba. 

Methods: We developed a model using the impact of a previous pandemic (the 2009 H1N1) to generate estimates.

Results: The lack of readily available data has resulted in a model that assumes homogeneity of communities in terms of health status, behaviour, and infrastructure limitations. While homogeneity may be a reasonable assumption for province-wide planning, First Nation communities and Tribal Councils require more precise information in order to plan effectively. Metis and urban Inuit communities, in contrast, have access to much less information, making the role of Indigenous organizations mandated to serve the needs of these populations that much more difficult.

Conclusion: For many years, Indigenous organizations have advocated for the need to have access to current and precise data to meet their needs. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the importance of timely and accurate community-based data to support pandemic responses.

Keywords:

• Infectious diseases,
• mathematical modeling,
• public health,
• Indigenous,
• Aboriginal,
• Canada,
• COVID-19,
• pandemic