Résumés
Abstract
While a number of factors have already been shown to impact variations in graduation rates among students in Canada, there is little research examining the changing impact of these factors on Ontario students’ secondary education completion over time. This research draws on data from two Grade 9 cohorts (2006 and 2011) from the Toronto District School Board in order to unpack how predictors of high school graduation change over time. In particular, we use multivariate analysis to examine whether predictors (including gender, race, parental education, household income, suspension, academic achievement, special education needs, and Grade 9 absenteeism) are significant by cohort of students and if there are gaps in secondary school success between subgroups. Findings demonstrate that high school completion is increasing over time and that there is a diminishing importance of parental education and neighbourhood household income as a predictor of high school graduation. However, we do find evidence of persistent under-achievement among students of certain racial backgrounds, lower academic streams, and those with high rates of absenteeism. We argue that additional data infrastructure in Ontario and beyond are necessary to identify how our findings generalize to the province as a whole.
Keywords:
- high school graduation,
- academic achievement,
- longitudinal
Résumé
Bien qu’il ait déjà été démontré qu’un certain nombre de facteurs influencent les variations des taux d’obtention de diplôme chez les élèves au Canada, peu de recherches se sont penchées sur les conséquences de ces facteurs sur l’achèvement des études secondaires des élèves ontariens au fil du temps. La présente recherche repose sur des données recueillies auprès de la Commission scolaire du district de Toronto concernant deux promotions de 9e année (2006 et 2011) et vise à déterminer comment les indicateurs relatifs à l’obtention des diplômes d’études secondaires évoluent au fil du temps. Plus particulièrement, nous recourons à une analyse multivariée pour déterminer si les indicateurs (notamment le sexe, la race, le niveau d’éducation des parents, le revenu du ménage, la suspension, le rendement scolaire, les besoins en matière d’éducation spécialisée et l’absentéisme en 9e année) sont significatifs par groupe d’élèves et s’il y a des écarts en matière de réussite au secondaire entre les sous-groupes. Les résultats obtenus prouvent que le taux d’achèvement des études secondaires augmente au fil du temps et que l’importance de l’éducation des parents et du revenu moyen des ménages du quartier en tant que facteurs prédictifs de l’obtention du diplôme d’études secondaires diminue. Cependant, nous observons la persistance de mauvais résultats chez les élèves de certaines minorités raciales, dans les classes inférieures et chez ceux qui ont un taux d’absentéisme élevé. Nous estimons que des infrastructures de données supplémentaires sont nécessaires en Ontario et ailleurs pour savoir si les résultats que nous avons obtenus s’appliquent à l’ensemble de la province.
Mots-clés :
- diplôme d’études secondaires,
- réussite scolaire,
- longitudinale
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